I attempt the political punditry equivalent of Evel Knievel’s jump over the Snake River. Will I land safely on the other side by successfully predicting presidential election returns for all 50 states plus the District of Columbia? Or will my guesses turn out to be a crash and burn? Does a Nader victory equal an early parachute deployment? Will I ever stop with this lame stuntman metaphor and just get on with it? Sure thing.

I’ve stated previously on several occasions that I think Al Gore will be the next President of the United States. Of course the first time was in the midst of the whole “I’m-Bill- Clinton-have-a-cigar” saga, and though some might think it unfair to count an “Al Gore is the next Big Cheese” guess in the context of impeachment proceedings, I think it’s only right to say that I missed on that one. (Though I continue to believe Clinton’s impeachment should have been sustained, and the lying [insert word or phrase of your choice here] thrown out of office.)

I was also wrong in saying, after the first Bush v. Gore presidential debate, that Al Gore was the next president on the basis of that night’s performance. I still think Gore dominated a frequently comically inept Bush. It’s just that competence isn’t necessarily the voting issue I think it should be. I’ll refrain from telling you what this makes me think of the electorate.

But it won’t stop me from going for strike three in my efforts to predict the next president. It only takes one good swing to hit a home run, and if predicting the outcome of all 50 states plus DC isn’t a potential four-bagger, I don’t know what is.

Note: I’m reserving the right to change my mind on states right up until Election Day, so expect to see me waffle a bit as polls indicate the fickle “Undecideds” have gone and changed their minds again.

Tune in again on Election Night as I’ll be updating the site with returns and tracking my success. Do bear in mind that I don’t think I have a snow ball’s chance in hell of picking correctly on a lot of the toss-up states; this is all just for giggles in case that’s unclear.

Final Update / 10:54 AM PST
State Votes Ty’s Pick Outcome Notes
Alabama 9 Bush Bush Bush by, oh, say 20


Bush Bush Bush is Big Oil’s best friend; Big Oil rules Alaska
Arizona 8 Bush Bush Traditionally Republican but a little tighter than normal this time around because McCain is favorite son and Bush is, well, Bush
Arkansas 6 Bush Bush Clinton’s campaigned here for Gore and though I’ve been burned by betting against Bill before, I’m willing to do it again


Gore Gore Been solidly Gore for a long time; recent campaigning by Bush a strategic mistake
Colorado 8 Bush Bush Latest shows Bush by 9; probably means a Republican kegger at the Coors plant


Gore Gore Solidly in Gore’s camp
Delaware 3 Bush Gore Bush by 4, right at the margin of error; I wouldn’t put money on this one
DC 3 Gore Gore Satan himself could head the Democratic ticket & still outpoll his Republican challenger in DC
Florida 25 Gore Bush Gore has led in every poll of the past 2 months; latest Zogby 11/3-5 (+/-4) has Gore by 4
Georgia 13 Bush Bush Bush wins the South; up 16 in latest poll
Hawaii 4 Gore Gore Gore’s got virtually a 2-to-1 edge in the Islands
Idaho 4 Bush Bush Spud state almost 2-to-1 for Bush
Illinois 22 Gore Gore A little tighter than Demos would prefer, but Gore will carry the state anyway
Indiana 12 Bush Bush Hoosier state never prized intellect as a necessary political quality; Sen. Quayle is proof
Iowa 7 Bush Gore Bush by 3 in 11/2 poll by PSI
Kansas 6 Bush Bush Almost 2-to-1 for Bush
Kentucky 8 Bush Bush Bush 51 to 41 in latest poll
Louisiana 9 Bush Bush Bush by 7 to 11 points
Maine 4 Gore/Bush Gore 3, Bush 1 Very tight; Maine 1 of 2 states that split electoral votes; I’m guessing 2 votes each
Maryland 10 Gore Gore Not even close
Massachusettes 12 Gore Gore Long a Democratic stronghold, Gore will have no problems here
Michigan 18 Gore Gore Was tight; Gore lead now above margin of error
Minnesota 10 Gore Gore Traditionally carried by Demos, but Nader potentially a factor; Nader support dropping, Gore moving ahead
Mississippi 7 Bush Bush Bush by 11
Missouri 11 Bush Bush Bush 49-45 in latest Zogby poll; it’ll be a close one
Montana 3 Bush Bush  Free Men unite! Bush by 11
Nebraska 5 Bush Bush Cornhuskers are Republicans apparently; Bush by 21; Nebraska splits electoral votes; I’m guessing 1 vote to Gore
Nevada 4 Bush Bush Bush by 4 in latest poll, and I’d wager that’s about right
New Hampshire 4 Gore Bush Gore by 3 or 4 points
New Jersey 15 Gore Gore Depending on who’s poll you read, Gore by 6 or Gore by 14; Either way it’s Gore
New Mexico 5 Gore  Gore 42-42 in NMSU poll of 9/26-28 (+/-4) & 45-45 in NMSU poll of 11/6 (+/-4); a roll of the dice
New York 33 Gore Gore Battle for NY over long ago; only question concerns Clinton-Lazio senate race
North Carolina 14 Bush Bush Bush by 10
North Dakota 3 Bush Bush The Dakotas heavily pro-Bush
Ohio 21 Bush Bush Bush leads in all of latest 8 polls; expect about a 4 point win here
Oklahoma 8 Bush Bush Bush by 10 or 11
Oregon 7 Bush Gore If Nader polls 10 percent Gore goes down in flames; recent Nader slippage has evened things up; it’ll be down to the wire
Pennsylvania 23 Gore Gore Gore polls ahead of Bush in last 6 polls; latest Zogby 10/28-29 (+/-4.5) has 46-43 Gore
Rhode Island 4 Gore Gore Overwhelmingly pro-Gore; unfortunately only 4 electoral college votes
South Carolina 8 Bush Bush Bush plays well in the South, here by 52-39 in the lastest polling
South Dakota 3 Bush Bush The Dakotas heavily pro-Bush
Tennesee 11 Bush Bush Gore will be the first presidential contender to lose his home state since McGovern
Texas 32 Bush Bush Bush will have no such problems
Utah 5 Bush Bush Mormons tend to be Republicans
Vermont 3 Gore Gore Strongly pro-Gore
Virginia 13 Bush Bush Bush by 7
Washington 11 Gore Gore Latest Zogby shows it a deadheat, but everything prior shows a small to moderate edge for Gore
West Virginia 5 Bush Bush Depending on the polling organization WV is either strongly pro-Bush or a horse race; I think the former
Wisconsin 11 Gore Gore A contested state, but with the exception of 1 Harris poll mid-October, everything comes up Gore
Wyoming 3 Bush Bush Cowboy vote carries cowpoke to victory


Ty’s Misses
Total Bush = 261


Delaware (3), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (7), Oregon (7), Florida (25)
Total Gore = 280