Honestly, I wasn’t that far off in 2000. I only missed Bush by 10 and Gore by 13. Not my fault it was the closest election in the history of ever. (Is it?) Commander Botox vs. Idiot-in-Chief.

I’m already on record as saying that I believe John Kerry will be the next President of the United States. I’m also on record as saying that he sure wasn’t my first choice. But seeing as how George W. Bush isn’t even in my top 1000, Kerry will do just fine.

The post debate polling is now starting to roll through and on the heels of it, I think we’ll start to see Kerry pull ahead in most of the relatively evenly divided states. Unless something shakes up the contest in the final couple weeks, I believe Kerry will win handily.

So it’s Hammer time. Let’s break it down.

Tune in again on Election Night as I’ll be updating the site with returns and tracking my success. Do bear in mind that I don’t think I have a snow ball’s chance in hell of picking correctly on a lot of the toss-up states; this is all just for giggles.

Last Updated / 7:38 AM PST, 03 November 2004
State Votes Ty’s Pick Outcome Notes
Alabama 9 Bush Bush Bush won in 2000 by 14


Bush Bush Bush won in 2000 by 59% to 28%
Arizona 10 Bush Bush Traditionally Republican but influx of Democrats have tightened things considerably. Bush by 6% in 2000; don’t think the electorate has changed that much.
Arkansas 6 Bush Bush I hereby flip on election eve.


Kerry Kerry Even the Terminator can’t make this state go Republican in the presidential
Colorado 9 Bush 9 Bush Bush will win, and state constitutional amendment to split electoral votes will not pass.


Kerry Kerry Gore by 18% in 2000
Delaware 3 Kerry Kerry My worst pick of 2000: I said Bush in a squeaker. Reality: Gore by 13%
DC 3 Kerry Kerry Yeah, that’s filled in on purpose
Florida 27 Kerry Bush Bush stole it in 2000; may again with Jeb Bush’s help. Four hurricaines have muddled polling of an almost evenly divided electorate. Jeb Bush and cronies may steal; otherwise I think Kerry.
Georgia 15 Bush Bush Bush by 13% in 2000
Hawaii 4 Kerry Kerry Aloha, Democrats
Idaho 4 Bush Bush Heavily Bush
Illinois 21 Kerry Kerry Gore carried state easily; Kerry will too
Indiana 11 Bush Bush Hoosier state never prized intellect as a necessary political quality; Sen. Quayle is proof
Iowa 7 Kerry State has grown more liberal; Gore scored narrow victory in 2000. Not that narrow this time.
Kansas 6 Bush Bush Almost 2-to-1 for Bush
Kentucky 8 Bush Bush Bush by a lot
Louisiana 9 Bush Bush Closer than one might think, but not that close
Maine 4 Kerry/Bush Kerry 4 Very tight; Maine 1 of 2 states that split electoral votes; I’m guessing 3 to 1 Kerry
Maryland 10 Kerry Kerry Not even close
Massachusettes 12 Kerry Kerry Mass. is even less of a contest than Maryland
Michigan 17 Kerry Kerry Gore 51-46 in 2000; hammered economically during Bush presidency
Minnesota 10 Kerry Kerry Gore 48%, Bush 46%, Nader 5% in 2000; Nader support much lower this time around
Mississippi 6 Bush Bush Bush 58 to 41 in 2000
Missouri 11 Bush Bush But not a gimmee. Latest polling 49% to 47% Bush. Could go Kerry.
Montana 3 Bush Bush OK, this one’s a gimmee
Nebraska 5 Bush Bush Cornhuskers are Republicans; Bush by a bundle; Nebraska splits electoral votes, but everything goes Bush
Nevada 5 Kerry Bush A state that, like AZ, has seen a liberal influx. Enough to go Kerry? Yes, I think so, but very close call.
New Hampshire 4 Kerry Kerry Will Nader make the difference? Had 3.9% in 2000; much less today. Bush won by 1.3%.
New Jersey 15 Kerry Kerry Not as liberal as New York, but liberal enough
New Mexico 5 Kerry Gore by .06% in 2000 with 3.6% to Nader. Will make the difference for Kerry this time around.
New York 31 Kerry Kerry No chance whatsoever of Republican victory here. As if Repub convention street fights weren’t big enough clue.
North Carolina 15 Bush Bush Edwards makes it a little uncomfortable for the Republicans, but they’ll prevail.
North Dakota 3 Bush Bush The Dakotas heavily pro-Bush
Ohio 20 Kerry Bush Hammered by Bush economy, but otherwise mostly Republican. A true toss-up state, though Kerry need to commit significant resources to keep it so.
Oklahoma 7 Bush Bush Bush by double digits
Oregon 7 Kerry Kerry Called a toss-up state, but isn’t really. Nader carried 5% in 2000; probably won’t make the ballot this time around
Pennsylvania 21 Kerry Kerry Gore by 5% in 2000; look for Kerry by the same in 2004
Rhode Island 4 Kerry Kerry Overwhelmingly pro-Democrat; unfortunately only 4 electoral college votes
South Carolina 8 Bush Bush Does native son Edwards put SC in play? No.
South Dakota 3 Bush Bush The Dakotas heavily pro-Bush
Tennesee 11 Bush Bush If Gore couldn’t win here don’t look for Kerry to succeed
Texas 34 Bush  Bush The worst president in modern times will nevertheless carry his home state
Utah 5 Bush Bush Despite a lot of disenchantment with Bush policies, Mormons tend to be Republicans
Vermont 3 Kerry Kerry Dean will deliver
Virginia 13 Bush Bush Bush by 3% or so; much tighter than in 2000 (52% Bush v. 44% Gore)
Washington 11 Kerry Kerry Whole West Coast except Alaska (Big Oil) goes Kerry
West Virginia 5 Bush Bush Bush, but 5% or less
Wisconsin 10 Kerry Kerry Another state where ex-Naderites make a difference
Wyoming 3 Bush Bush Cowboy vote carries cowpoke to victory


Ty’s Misses
Total Bush = 223 274 Florida (27), Ohio (20), Nevada (5)
Total Kerry = 315 252