By the way, this is also how I feel when the Steelers lose.
I suppose it will surprise no one that I didn’t sleep well last night. It looks like Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio will go Bush’s way and give him the victory. I don’t mind missing on the first two since they were always a shot in the dark anyway. They have large rural populations, tend conservative, and were incredibly close in 2000 as well.
I’m guessing that being completely wrong on Florida has to do with the Jewish vote. Joe Lieberman, a Jew, isn’t on the ticket this time around plus I’m supposing that large segments of the Jewish population there see the US invasion of Iraq as being in Israel’s interest, sort of the US directly joining the fight in the Middle East. (This is also how most of the Arab world sees it.) The one thing we can say with certainty is that Kerry did not run as well in Florida as Gore did in 2000, and I muffed that call big-time.
Ohio is more vexing to me. Here’s a state that, though predominantly Republican, has suffered the worst job losses of any state in the union. How can that not translate into a change of leadership? Admittedly, I have no clue.
DailyKos is reporting this morning that Bush’s lead in Ohio is 135,000 votes and that there are some 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. Supposedly some 90% of those should be valid if history is a guide, and if Kerry runs about where Gore did in 2000, 85% to 15%, then Kerry would win Ohio by 55,000 votes. So hope hangs by a thread. (Anybody seen Frodo and Samwise?)
That aside, what does a Bush election portend? My guesses: (1) continuing budget deficits; (2) a major attempt to privatize at least part of Social Security (note to young-uns: your projected benefits will drop); (3) a major decline in the fighting strength of the American military due to lack of recruits, deaths, and wide-spread disillusionment with the war on Iraq; (4) a Supreme Court that continues it’s rightward tilt with three (maybe four) new appointees; (5) a lot more drinking by yours truly.