Thank God somebody did the math so I wouldn’t have to.
Bottom line: Obama is a lot closer to the number of delegates needed for victory than the media makes it appear. Clinton needs to win 67.5% of all remaining delegates to win the nomination. Every time she loses a state or in fact wins at a margin less than 67.5%, the percentage of remaining delegates she needs to win goes upward.
So what do all these numbers mean? Essentially, they point out that the best hope for Hillary Clinton to win the election is for Barack Obama to be struck by a meteorite, so long as it kills him and does not grant him any (more?) superhuman powers. Beating her EF of 67.5% in all states is an outlandish proposal. The only election she’s done that so far was in Arkansas, her sort of home state. She was just shy of that margin during her incumbent run for Senate in NY (for those not well versed in Senate elections, incumbents nearly always win and its rarely a contest). More than likely, even if everything went Clinton’s way, she would be down in both pledged delegates and popular vote….
If these figures seem unfair to Hillary Clinton, when, “the people have not all yet spoken,” I encourage you to remember that there are only 11 contests left, with 43 having already been decided. The people HAVE spoken. They have with enough of a margin where if this were an election night, it would already have been called by every network weeks ago.
There. Now I feel better.