**March 1, 2020**
Expect the number of COVID-19 cases in Oregon and Washington to rise dramatically in the next week or so. Community spread + deaths + lack of testing mean we probably have a silent epidemic already underway.
Upside, I guess, is that more testing will give us a clearer picture on the fatality rate (without reliance on the dubious China numbers).
The seriousness of this virus appears to be especially pronounced in the elderly and those with other factors like smoking, obesity, weakened immune system, etc. For relativ healthy people this may be more of a Typhoid Mary situation where the infected aren’t that harmed but pass it along to others who might be.
One possible bright spot is that the virus, like the flu, may be somewhat seasonal. If so, it would give us much needed time over the summer to prepare for the winter. We don’t know yet if this is the case, but one can hope.