Team of 25 World Health Organization (WHO) experts with some findings:
â€¢ When cluster of infections occurred in China, most often (78-85%) caused by infection within family by droplets or other close contact with infected person. Transmission by fine aerosols in air over long distances not one of the main causes of spread. Most infected hospital workers infected at home or in early phase before hospital safeguards raised.
â€¢ 5% of people with Covid-19 require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen and more than a few days. Duration from beginning of disease to recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for severe or critical patients. Only 2 weeks for mildly ill.
â€¢ Medical system of provence of Hubei absolutely overwhelmed by patients. ~65k infected patients so far. 40k medical employees sent in to help deal. 45 hospitals now treating patients.
â€¢ China is now producing 1.6 million Covid-19 test kids per week. Same day results. Anyone with fever is screened for virus. in Guangdong province, far away from the outbreak, 320k people have been screened and only .14% positive.
â€¢ Vast majority of infected develop symptoms within a few days. Rare to have virus detected and not develop symptoms in few days time.
â€¢ Common symptoms are fever (88%), dry cough (68%), exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%), nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (%5%), diarrhea (4%). Runny nose is NOT a symptom of Covid-19..
â€¢ Fatality rate is 3.4%. Strongly influenced by age, pre-existing conditions, gender, and response of the health care system. These numbers through Feb. 17â€”expect lower fatality rates going forward. Number has already dropped within China.
â€¢ 20% of infected people in China needed weeks of hospital treatment. China has hospital beds for .4% of population. Other developed countries: .1% to 1.3% and most beds are already occupied with other patients. Important to aggressively contain virus spread and increase number of beds.
â€¢ Fatality rate in China for those with pre-existing cardiovascular disease was 13.2%. For uncontrolled diabetes 9.2%. High blood pressure 8.4%. Chronic respiratory diseases 8%. Cancer 7%.
â€¢ Fatality rate for ages 0-9 is 0%. Remains under .5% until age 49. Age 50-59 = 1.3%. Age 60-69 = 3.6%. Age 70-79 = 8%. Age 80+ = 14.8%.
â€¢ Men and women catch the disease equally, but it is more fatal to men. (Men in China smoke much more than women, as a possible explanation for this.)
â€¢ Number of new cases in China is declining and has been since end of January.
â€¢ China is interviewing all infected people nationwide about their contacts and testing those people. There are 1,800 teams in Wuhan alone to do this. “In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history.”
â€¢ Based on these tests and interviews, if you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%.
“COVID-19 is spreading with astonishing speed; COVID-19 outbreaks in any setting have very serious consequences; and there is now strong evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce and even interrupt transmission. Concerningly, global and national preparedness planning is often ambivalent about such interventions. However, to reduce COVID-19 illness and death, near-term readiness planning must embrace the large-scale implementation of high-quality, non-pharmaceutical public health measures. These measures must fully incorporate immediate case detection and isolation, rigorous close contact tracing and monitoring/quarantine, and direct population/community engagement.”
[Note that Chinese data is widely considered suspect. Take all of the above with a grain of salt]