COVID-19 fatality rate

The COVID-19 fatality rate is very high compared to influenza. The broad expectation is that increased testing will show the actual rate (collectively 3.4% right now according to the WHO) is lower.Crucially, the fatality rate is highly age-dependent and adults,...

Northwest update

The Emerald City Comic Con is scheduled in Seattle at the Washington State Convention Center from March 12-15. Last year it drew 98,000 people. It is the height of irresponsibility that organizers are moving forward with this. Refunding ticket holders who ask is not...

Worldwide COVID-19 modeling

Australian National University has run seven scenarios on the likely worldwide outcomes of the SARS-CoV 2 viral pandemic. Best case scenario (low severity model): Global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion with an estimated 15 million dead. Worse case scenario (high severity...

Notes on COVID-19 Reddit AMA

Some COVID-19 notes from today’s Reddit AMA with a bunch of doctors tracking the virus:• A few infected folks are asymptomatic. They test positive and are infected but have no symptoms.• Around 80% of people infected will have a mild illness, low-grade fever...

More than 13k cases outside China

There are now more than 13k COVID-19 cases outside China. The number of cases has been doubling roughly every three days. If this growth rate continues unchecked, there will be 1.7 million cases outside China in about 3 weeks. For some countries, this will be...