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most self-deluded online superstar
News & Commentary
Pulse oximeters
More about a pulse oximeter.
COVID-19 fatality rate
The COVID-19 fatality rate is very high compared to influenza. The broad expectation is that increased testing will show the actual rate (collectively 3.4% right now according to the WHO) is lower.Crucially, the fatality rate is highly age-dependent and adults, particularly seniors, are most effected.All numbers from CDC and CDC China:Flu death rates by...
Northwest update
The Emerald City Comic Con is scheduled in Seattle at the Washington State Convention Center from March 12-15. Last year it drew 98,000 people. It is the height of irresponsibility that organizers are moving forward with this. Refunding ticket holders who ask is not enough. The event, like all events that draw large numbers of people, needs to be...
Worldwide COVID-19 modeling
Australian National University has run seven scenarios on the likely worldwide outcomes of the SARS-CoV 2 viral pandemic. Best case scenario (low severity model): Global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion with an estimated 15 million dead. Worse case scenario (high severity model): Global GDP loss of $9 trillion with an estimated 68 million dead. These models used...
Notes on COVID-19 Reddit AMA
Some COVID-19 notes from today's Reddit AMA with a bunch of doctors tracking the virus:• A few infected folks are asymptomatic. They test positive and are infected but have no symptoms.• Around 80% of people infected will have a mild illness, low-grade fever and mild cough for a few days.• The virus spreads from person to person through respiratory...
More than 13k cases outside China
There are now more than 13k COVID-19 cases outside China. The number of cases has been doubling roughly every three days. If this growth rate continues unchecked, there will be 1.7 million cases outside China in about 3 weeks. For some countries, this will be disastrous. Perhaps they don't have the medical infrastructure to deal with a pandemic. Or they...
Folding@Home
It's something. (Note that this may be beyond your ken if you're not rather tech savvy.) How your computer can help combat coronavirus (for real)You can donate your computer's processing power to help develop therapies for the coronavirus.
Northwest
Parts of Washington and California should be in general quarantine right now. They’re not. Outbreak on the way.
Statistical analysis of Seattle-area
Statistical analysis of the Seattle-area COVID-19 cases show with a high degree of probability that there are around 600 cases there right now. This puts the Seattle area about where Wuhan, China was on January 1. Everything there exploded about 3 weeks later. In the meantime, CDC is still not letting doctors test patients unless the patient has had a...
Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission
The Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) + the cases statistics out of China (also announced by WHO) give us two bits of hope: China is slowly beating the virus. It's ponderous work, but the number of new cases per day from last week (~3k) to this week (~300) shows that they're on the right track. I've been as...
Essays
College Notebook: Eat My Cornflakes
I wrote this back in college circa 1988 during my younger and dumber days. Well, younger anyway. I wouldn't publish these now except that my friend Dave thinks they're all right. I think Dave might have been "younger" then, too. Regardless, Cornflakes is about the steady decline of the country from the perspective of someone who remembers how it used to be. Clearly, that's not me, but lack of experience has never stopped me before, and it sure didn't here either. Once upon...
The Celestine Prophecy: The Mayans Did What?!?
Sure, it's an I-Can-Read book for the suspect and rather baffling Christian New Age movement. That doesn't mean there isn't some truth here, and let's face it, lots of people need I-Can-Read spiritual help. Of course that doesn't mean this incredibly dumb narrative is it. WARNING: This review may include spoilers! The Celestine Prophecy sports on its beautiful dust jacket one of the more compelling ideas for a story that has come down the pike in recent times: In the rain...
The Matrix: Jesus Christ, It’s Keanu Reeves!
I'm sure I'll be accused of blasphemy, but I call 'em as I see 'em. Reeves, a horrible actor if there ever was one, achieved "passable" status in Chain Reaction and Speed. Does Reeves ascend to new heights in The Matrix? As his legion of fans (hullo, girls!) will attest, the answer is a definitive "yes." WARNING: This review may include spoilers! You've probably read the Book, so why not go see the science fiction version of the story? I dare say that the origins of The...
Phantom Menace: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Whatever you do, don't blink. This fourth Star Wars film is the easily the most quickly paced of the lot. Too bad that's not the only problem. Of course, I still think it's worth seeing several times. WARNING: This review may include spoilers! There is a lot to like about George Lucas' latest entry into the Star Wars canon, Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace. There's also quite a bit to dislike, and the result is an oddly mixed reaction that probably makes this the...